Copa Uruguay · Oct 16, 2025 00:00
Defensor Sporting
PWR 57
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
Defensor Sporting
PWR 57
0 - 2
FT
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
43% H
25% D
32% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Defensor Sporting to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
2-1
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (17%)
1-0 (15%)
3-0 (13%)
2-1 (8%)
0-0 (7%)
1-1 (7%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 0-2
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 45%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Power & Form
Attack48
Defense68
Goals/G1.4
Conc/G0.9
Attack65
Defense55
Goals/G1.9
Conc/G1.3
Defensor Sport… Form
LWWDW
STABLE
Peñarol Montev… Form
DDWWW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.547%
BTTS32%
Under 2.553%
Defensor Sp… Goals
0
11%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Peñarol Mon… Goals
0
64%
1
28%
2
6%
3
1%
4
0%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total1.1
Over 3.53%
BTTS Yes18%
Home Clean Sheet50%
Away Clean Sheet64%
Top Correct Scores:
0-0 (32%)
0-1 (22%)
1-0 (14%)
1-1 (10%)
0-2 (8%)
1-2 (3%)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.23
Defensor Sport…vs
0.44
Peñarol Montev…Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum91%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#1
Defensor Sp…+1
Gap#2
Peñarol Mon…
WR 55% 21 pts
WR 71% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporti… | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 21 |
| Peñarol Montevi… | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 15 |
Defensor Sport…
14.0%
| Oct 11 | Defenso… v Cerrito | 1-0 |
| Oct 06 | Defenso… v Randers… | 2-1 |
| Oct 02 | Defenso… v Central… | 2-0 |
| Sep 29 | Defenso… v Miramar | 0-0 |
| Sep 19 | Defenso… v Danubio | 2-1 |
| Sep 13 | Defenso… v Cerro L… | 1-0 |
| Sep 05 | Defenso… v Juventus | 1-0 |
| Aug 30 | Defenso… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Aug 23 | Defenso… v Plaza C… | 1-0 |
| Aug 17 | Defenso… v Racing … | 0-1 |
Peñarol Montev…
16.0%
| Oct 11 | Peñarol… v Miramar | 2-2 |
| Oct 11 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 2-2 |
| Oct 05 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 2-0 |
| Oct 03 | Peñarol… v River P… | 0-1 |
| Sep 27 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 1-3 |
| Sep 27 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 2-1 |
| Sep 24 | Peñarol… v Tacuare… | 1-2 |
| Sep 21 | Peñarol… v Juventus | 1-0 |
| Sep 20 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 3-1 |
| Sep 13 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Aug 30, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Defensor Spor… | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
Key Factors
Defensor Sporting in strong form (3W in last 5)
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.