Serie B · Nov 23, 2025 19:30
Chapecoense
PWR 51
Athletico Paranaense
PWR 49
Chapecoense
PWR 51
1 - 0
FT
Athletico Paranaense
PWR 49
35% H
27% D
38% A
Final Verdict
Athletico Paranaense Win
Prediction
2-1
Score
42%
Confidence
STANDARD
Stability STANDARD
Stability STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (18%)
0-0 (13%)
1-1 (12%)
2-0 (12%)
0-1 (9%)
2-1 (8%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 1-0
Stability Protocol
STANDARD · 2 rules · 42%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy56%
AWAY_FORM_MOMENTUMAWAY_POINTS_GAP
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line for draw protection
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 1% = 35.1% draw rateH2H: 2/3 draws (67%) = VERY HIGH riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (32.2%) - VETO 1X2 | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Power & Form
Attack42
Defense69
Goals/G1.2
Conc/G0.9
Attack43
Defense61
Goals/G1.2
Conc/G1.1
Chapecoense Form
DLDWL
STABLE
Athletico Para… Form
WWDWL
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.533%
BTTS37%
Under 2.567%
Chapecoense Goals
0
26%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Athletico P… Goals
0
50%
1
35%
2
12%
3
3%
4
1%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% | - |
| 4.5 | 39% | 62% | - |
| 5.5 | 23% | 77% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total4.1
Over 3.558%
BTTS Yes67%
Home Clean Sheet29%
Away Clean Sheet6%
Top Correct Scores:
2-1 (9%)
3-1 (8%)
2-0 (7%)
3-0 (6%)
1-1 (6%)
4-1 (6%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Chapecoensevs
0.69
Athletico Para…Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum69%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#3
Chapecoense-2
Gap#1
Athletico P…
WR 41% 86 pts
WR 41% 118 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 56 | 23 | 17 | 16 | 67 | 50 | 86 |
| Athletico Paran… | 79 | 32 | 22 | 25 | 97 | 88 | 118 |
Chapecoense
8.0%
| Nov 15 | Chapeco… v Volta R… | 1-1 |
| Nov 10 | Chapeco… v América… | 0-1 |
| Nov 02 | Chapeco… v Remo | 1-1 |
| Oct 27 | Chapeco… v Operári… | 2-0 |
| Oct 26 | Chapeco… v Figueir… | 2-0 |
| Oct 22 | Chapeco… v Figueir… | 2-1 |
| Oct 19 | Chapeco… v Goiás | 1-3 |
| Oct 15 | Chapeco… v Concórd… | 1-1 |
| Oct 14 | Chapeco… v Botafogo | 1-1 |
| Oct 09 | Chapeco… v Ferrovi… | 0-1 |
Athletico Para…
14.0%
| Nov 19 | Athleti… v Gavião | 3-1 |
| Nov 16 | Athleti… v Ferrovi… | 1-2 |
| Nov 15 | Athleti… v Operári… | 0-0 |
| Nov 14 | Athleti… v Gavião | 1-2 |
| Nov 09 | Athleti… v Criciúma | 1-0 |
| Nov 08 | Athleti… v Volta R… | 2-0 |
| Nov 01 | Athleti… v Goiás | 0-1 |
| Oct 31 | Athleti… v Paysand… | 2-1 |
| Oct 28 | Athleti… v Amazonas | 2-0 |
| Oct 26 | Athleti… v CRB | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Sep 17, 2025 | Chapecoense | 2-3 | Athletico Par… |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Athletico Par… | 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| May 09, 2025 | Athletico Par… | 1-1 | Chapecoense |
Key Factors
Athletico Paranaense in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.