Taça de Portugal · Jan 14, 2026 20:45
FC Porto
PWR 85
Benfica
PWR 81
FC Porto
PWR 85
1 - 0
FT
Benfica
PWR 81
51% H
24% D
25% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (63% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
63%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-1 (9%)
1-1 (8%)
3-1 (7%)
2-0 (7%)
2-2 (6%)
1-0 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 1-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 45%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rate
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Power & Form
Attack86
Defense75
Goals/G2.5
Conc/G0.7
Attack88
Defense79
Goals/G2.5
Conc/G0.6
FC Porto Form
WDWWW
STABLE
Benfica Form
WWWLD
UP
Score & Markets
Over 2.568%
BTTS67%
Under 2.532%
FC Porto Goals
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
Benfica Goals
0
26%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% | - |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total2.6
Over 3.526%
BTTS Yes52%
Home Clean Sheet32%
Away Clean Sheet23%
Top Correct Scores:
1-1 (12%)
1-0 (11%)
2-1 (9%)
0-1 (8%)
2-0 (8%)
0-0 (7%)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.38
FC Portovs
1.35
BenficaDecision Breakdown
HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum80%
Standings50%
Market48%
High draw risk (49%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#1
FC Porto+1
Gap#2
Benfica
WR 94% 48 pts
WR 78% 44 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 17 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 48 |
| Benfica | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 11 | 44 |
FC Porto
18.0%
| Jan 11 | FC Porto v Sportin… | 2-1 |
| Jan 05 | FC Porto v Benfica | 1-1 |
| Jan 04 | FC Porto v Santa C… | 0-1 |
| Dec 29 | FC Porto v AVS | 2-0 |
| Dec 22 | FC Porto v Alverca | 0-3 |
| Dec 21 | FC Porto v Felguei… | 2-0 |
| Dec 18 | FC Porto v Famalic… | 4-1 |
| Dec 15 | FC Porto v Estrela… | 3-1 |
| Dec 12 | FC Porto v Penafie… | 1-0 |
| Dec 11 | FC Porto v Malmö FF | 2-1 |
Benfica
14.0%
| Jan 13 | Benfica v Newcast… | 0-5 |
| Jan 10 | Benfica v Rio Ave… | 2-0 |
| Jan 07 | Benfica v Chelsea… | 2-6 |
| Jan 07 | Benfica v SC Braga | 1-3 |
| Jan 05 | Benfica v FC Porto | 1-1 |
| Jan 03 | Benfica v Estoril | 3-1 |
| Dec 28 | Benfica v SC Braga | 2-2 |
| Dec 28 | Benfica v Académi… | 1-2 |
| Dec 22 | Benfica v Famalic… | 1-0 |
| Dec 22 | Benfica v Sportin… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Jan 05, 2026 | Benfica | 1-1 | FC Porto |
| Oct 05, 2025 | FC Porto | 0-0 | Benfica |
| May 17, 2025 | FC Porto | 1-4 | Benfica |
| Apr 06, 2025 | FC Porto | 1-4 | Benfica |
| Jan 06, 2025 | Benfica | 2-1 | FC Porto |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Benfica | 4-1 | FC Porto |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Benfica | 4-1 | FC Porto |
| May 17, 2024 | Benfica | 5-2 | FC Porto |
| Mar 03, 2024 | FC Porto | 5-0 | Benfica |
| Mar 03, 2024 | FC Porto | 5-0 | Benfica |
Key Factors
FC Porto in strong form (4W in last 5)
Benfica in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.