Copa De La Liga Auf · Jan 22, 2026 23:30
Club Nacional
PWR 35
Progreso
PWR 29
Club Nacional
PWR 35
1 - 1
FT
Progreso
PWR 29
55% H
23% D
22% A
Final Verdict
Club Nacional Win
Prediction
1-0
Score
35%
Confidence
SKIP
Stability SKIP
Stability SKIP
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (29%)
0-0 (26%)
2-0 (16%)
1-1 (7%)
3-0 (6%)
0-1 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 1-1
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 35%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line for draw protection
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 4/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (29.2%) - VETO 1X2
Power & Form
Attack23
Defense77
Goals/G0.7
Conc/G0.7
Attack18
Defense65
Goals/G0.5
Conc/G1.0
Club Nacional Form
DDWDD
STABLE
Progreso Form
LDDLL
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.515%
BTTS14%
Under 2.585%
Club Nacion… Goals
0
33%
1
37%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
Progreso Goals
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 80% | 20% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% | - |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total1.6
Over 3.58%
BTTS Yes18%
Home Clean Sheet76%
Away Clean Sheet27%
Top Correct Scores:
1-0 (27%)
0-0 (20%)
2-0 (18%)
3-0 (8%)
1-1 (7%)
0-1 (6%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Club Nacionalvs
0.23
ProgresoDecision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum79%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#6
Club Nacion…+1
Gap#7
Progreso
WR 0% 3 pts
WR 0% 2 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Progreso | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Club Nacional
12.0%
| Jan 17 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 1-1 |
| Jan 14 | Club Na… v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Nov 30 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 1-0 |
| Nov 23 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 2-2 |
| Nov 09 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Club Na… v Rangers… | 0-0 |
| Oct 18 | Club Na… v Miramar | 3-1 |
| Oct 12 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 2-1 |
Progreso
4.0%
| Jan 19 | Progreso v Juventus | 0-1 |
| Jan 12 | Progreso v Defenso… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Progreso v Juventus | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Progreso v Atletic… | 0-5 |
| Oct 26 | Progreso v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
| Oct 19 | Progreso v Defenso… | 2-3 |
| Oct 10 | Progreso v Plaza C… | 0-1 |
| Oct 05 | Progreso v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Sep 29 | Progreso v Racing … | 0-0 |
| Sep 21 | Progreso v Rangers… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Aug 16, 2025 | Club Nacional | 3-1 | Progreso |
| May 23, 2025 | Club Nacional | 1-0 | Progreso |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Progreso | 1-5 | Club Nacional |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Progreso | 0-3 | Club Nacional |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Club Nacional | 0-0 | Progreso |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Club Nacional | 0-1 | Progreso |
| May 23, 2021 | Progreso | 1-3 | Club Nacional |
| Feb 18, 2021 | Progreso | 0-1 | Club Nacional |
| Aug 26, 2020 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Progreso |
Key Factors
Progreso struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.