Cup · Mar 04, 2026 15:00
Qarabağ FK
PWR 71
Şamaxı
PWR 57
Qarabağ FK
PWR 71
3 - 1
FT
Şamaxı
PWR 57
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
1X (Home/Draw)
Double Chance · Odds imply 77% home + 15% draw = 92% combined
97%
accuracy
1.15x
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Qarabağ FK to win (61% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
0-1 (15%)0-2 (15%)0-3 (10%)1-1 (9%)1-2 (9%)0-0 (8%)
WRONG 3-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
92%
Home/Draw
1.15x
DC X2
Away/Draw
4.54x
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS
No 38%
Over 3.5
49%
Team Comparison
92Attack47
60Defense59
Goals/G
2.61.3
Conc/G
1.21.2
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Qarabağ FK
DLLWW
STABLE
Şamaxı
DDDLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateAway team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.59
Qarabağ FKvs
1.99
ŞamaxıGoal Probability
Qarabağ FK
0
55%
1
33%
2
10%
3
2%
4
0%
Şamaxı
0
14%
1
27%
2
27%
3
18%
4
9%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (9%)2-1 (9%)1-2 (7%)2-2 (7%)3-1 (6%)1-0 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 49% | 52% | - |
| 4.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Qarabağ FK+3
Gap#5
Şamaxı
WR 62% 24 pts
WR 67% 12 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabağ FK | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 15 | 24 |
| Şamaxı | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 12 |
Qarabağ FK
10.0%
| Mar 01 | Qarabağ… v Sabah FA | 3-3 |
| Feb 24 | Qarabağ… v Newcast… | 3-2 |
| Feb 18 | Qarabağ… v Newcast… | 1-6 |
| Feb 14 | Qarabağ… v Mil-Muğ… | 0-1 |
| Feb 10 | Qarabağ… v Şamaxı | 1-2 |
| Feb 05 | Qarabağ… v Şamaxı | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | Qarabağ… v Turan T… | 1-0 |
| Jan 28 | Qarabağ… v Liverpo… | 6-0 |
| Jan 24 | Qarabağ… v Kəpəz | 0-2 |
| Jan 21 | Qarabağ… v Eintrac… | 3-2 |
Şamaxı
10.0%
| Feb 28 | Şamaxı v Neftchi… | 2-2 |
| Feb 22 | Şamaxı v Mil-Muğ… | 0-0 |
| Feb 16 | Şamaxı v Turan T… | 0-0 |
| Feb 10 | Şamaxı v Qarabağ… | 1-2 |
| Feb 05 | Şamaxı v Qarabağ… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Şamaxı v Kəpəz | 0-2 |
| Jan 24 | Şamaxı v Qabala | 0-4 |
| Dec 21 | Şamaxı v Araz | 2-0 |
| Dec 13 | Şamaxı v Zira | 2-1 |
| Dec 07 | Şamaxı v Karvan | 0-3 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Feb 10, 2026 | Şamaxı | 1-2 | Qarabağ FK |
| Feb 05, 2026 | Şamaxı | 2-1 | Qarabağ FK |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Qarabağ FK | 0-0 | Şamaxı |
| May 24, 2025 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Qarabağ FK |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Qarabağ FK | 3-2 | Şamaxı |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Qarabağ FK |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Qarabağ FK | 3-0 | Şamaxı |
| Apr 02, 2023 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Qarabağ FK |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Qarabağ FK | 3-1 | Şamaxı |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Şamaxı | 0-4 | Qarabağ FK |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player
40%
Momentum
35%
Standings
50%
Market
96%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.