Cup · Feb 05, 2026 10:30
Şamaxı
PWR 57
Qarabağ FK
PWR 71
Şamaxı
PWR 57
2 - 1
FT
Qarabağ FK
PWR 71
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (12%)2-0 (11%)1-1 (11%)2-1 (10%)3-0 (7%)0-0 (7%)
WRONG 2-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
BTTS
No 49%
Over 3.5
50%
Team Comparison
47Attack92
59Defense60
Goals/G
1.32.6
Conc/G
1.21.2
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Şamaxı
WLLWW
STABLE
Qarabağ FK
WLLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rate
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Şamaxıvs
0.86
Qarabağ FKGoal Probability
Şamaxı
0
16%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Qarabağ FK
0
42%
1
36%
2
16%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)2-0 (6%)1-2 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% | - |
| 4.5 | 31% | 69% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 17% | 83% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
League Position
#5
Şamaxı-3
Gap#2
Qarabağ FK
WR 67% 12 pts
WR 62% 24 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şamaxı | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 12 |
| Qarabağ FK | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 15 | 24 |
Şamaxı
12.0%
| Jan 31 | Şamaxı v Kəpəz | 0-2 |
| Jan 24 | Şamaxı v Qabala | 0-4 |
| Dec 21 | Şamaxı v Araz | 2-0 |
| Dec 13 | Şamaxı v Zira | 2-1 |
| Dec 07 | Şamaxı v Karvan | 0-3 |
| Dec 03 | Şamaxı v Baku Sp… | 1-0 |
| Nov 30 | Şamaxı v Sumqayıt | 1-2 |
| Nov 23 | Şamaxı v Sabah FA | 0-0 |
| Nov 07 | Şamaxı v Mil-Muğ… | 1-0 |
| Nov 02 | Şamaxı v Turan T… | 2-1 |
Qarabağ FK
12.0%
| Feb 01 | Qarabağ… v Turan T… | 1-0 |
| Jan 28 | Qarabağ… v Liverpo… | 6-0 |
| Jan 24 | Qarabağ… v Kəpəz | 0-2 |
| Jan 21 | Qarabağ… v Eintrac… | 3-2 |
| Dec 21 | Qarabağ… v Qabala | 1-2 |
| Dec 18 | Qarabağ… v Sabah FA | 2-1 |
| Dec 14 | Qarabağ… v Araz | 5-1 |
| Dec 10 | Qarabağ… v Ajax | 2-4 |
| Dec 06 | Qarabağ… v Zira | 1-1 |
| Dec 03 | Qarabağ… v Karvan | 3-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Oct 26, 2025 | Qarabağ FK | 0-0 | Şamaxı |
| May 24, 2025 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Qarabağ FK |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Qarabağ FK | 3-2 | Şamaxı |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Qarabağ FK |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Qarabağ FK | 3-0 | Şamaxı |
| Apr 02, 2023 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Qarabağ FK |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Qarabağ FK | 3-1 | Şamaxı |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Şamaxı | 0-4 | Qarabağ FK |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Qarabağ FK | 4-0 | Şamaxı |
| Apr 15, 2022 | Qarabağ FK | 8-0 | Şamaxı |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
80%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Şamaxı in strong form (3W in last 5)
Qarabağ FK in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.