Premier League · Feb 27, 2026 19:45
Caernarfon Town
PWR 35
Colwyn Bay
PWR 35
Caernarfon Town
PWR 35
3 - 0
FT
Colwyn Bay
PWR 35
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-1 (12%)1-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (7%)1-2 (7%)2-0 (7%)
WRONG 3-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.53x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.82x
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
BTTS
Yes 57%
Over 3.5
59%
59%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Caernarfon Town
WLLLD
STABLE
Colwyn Bay
WLWLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Caernarfon Townvs
1.26
Colwyn BayGoal Probability
Caernarfon …
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
14%
4
5%
Colwyn Bay
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (8%)3-1 (8%)1-1 (6%)2-2 (6%)2-0 (6%)3-2 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 92% | 9% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% | - |
| 4.5 | 39% | 61% | - |
| 5.5 | 23% | 77% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
League Position
#4
Caernarfon …+2
Gap#6
Colwyn Bay
WR 36% 34 pts
WR 36% 30 pts
Caernarfon Town
6.0%
| Feb 21 | Caernar… v Caerau … | 3-4 |
| Feb 20 | Caernar… v The New… | 2-1 |
| Feb 14 | Caernar… v Bala To… | 0-2 |
| Feb 13 | Caernar… v Trefelin | 0-2 |
| Feb 06 | Caernar… v GAP Con… | 1-1 |
| Jan 31 | Caernar… v Colwyn … | 4-1 |
| Jan 30 | Caernar… v Llantwi… | 1-1 |
| Jan 24 | Caernar… v Penybont | 0-0 |
| Jan 23 | Caernar… v Afan Li… | 0-1 |
| Jan 13 | Caernar… v GAP Con… | 2-2 |
Colwyn Bay
10.0%
| Feb 21 | Colwyn … v Penybont | 3-1 |
| Feb 13 | Colwyn … v The New… | 0-2 |
| Feb 07 | Colwyn … v Bala To… | 0-1 |
| Jan 31 | Colwyn … v Caernar… | 4-1 |
| Jan 24 | Colwyn … v GAP Con… | 2-2 |
| Jan 13 | Colwyn … v The New… | 1-0 |
| Jan 01 | Colwyn … v Flint T… | 1-2 |
| Dec 27 | Colwyn … v Caernar… | 1-2 |
| Dec 13 | Colwyn … v Pontypr… | 0-3 |
| Dec 05 | Colwyn … v GAP Con… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Jan 31, 2026 | Caernarfon To… | 4-1 | Colwyn Bay |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 1-2 | Colwyn Bay |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 1-3 | Colwyn Bay |
| Oct 04, 2025 | Colwyn Bay | 1-0 | Caernarfon To… |
| Aug 01, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 3-0 | Colwyn Bay |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Caernarfon To… | 2-1 | Colwyn Bay |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Colwyn Bay | 0-4 | Caernarfon To… |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
63%
Standings
53%
Market
47%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Caernarfon Town struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.