Primeira Liga · Mar 09, 2026 20:15
Tondela
PWR 35
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
Tondela
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
57% H
23% D
20% A
Final Verdict
Tondela Win
Prediction
1-1
Score
42%
Confidence
SKIP
Stability SKIP
Stability SKIP
Most Likely Scores:
3-0 (17%)
2-0 (15%)
1-0 (9%)
3-1 (4%)
2-1 (4%)
0-0 (3%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 1 rules · 42%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk35%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line for draw protection
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 42% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateHome team drew 4/5 recent gamesAway draws 42% away = VERY HIGHCombined DR 83% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (34.6%) - VETO 1X2
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Tondela Form
DWDDD
STABLE
Rio Ave FC Form
DLLLL
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.557%
BTTS22%
Under 2.543%
Tondela Goals
0
4%
1
12%
2
20%
3
22%
4
18%
Rio Ave FC Goals
0
77%
1
20%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 7% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total2.8
Over 3.531%
BTTS Yes39%
Home Clean Sheet57%
Away Clean Sheet11%
Top Correct Scores:
2-0 (15%)
1-0 (14%)
3-0 (11%)
2-1 (9%)
1-1 (8%)
3-1 (6%)
Expected Goals (xG)
3.30
Tondelavs
0.26
Rio Ave FCDecision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum94%
Standings48%
Market50%
League Standings
#16
Tondela-1
Gap#15
Rio Ave FC
WR 8% 19 pts
WR 17% 21 pts
Tondela
12.0%
| Mar 01 | Tondela v Santa Cā¦ | 2-2 |
| Feb 20 | Tondela v Estrelaā¦ | 0-2 |
| Feb 13 | Tondela v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Tondela v Estoril | 2-2 |
| Feb 01 | Tondela v Benfica | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Tondela v Famalicā¦ | 3-0 |
| Jan 18 | Tondela v SC Braga | 0-1 |
| Jan 11 | Tondela v Moreireā¦ | 1-0 |
| Jan 03 | Tondela v Arouca | 3-1 |
| Dec 21 | Tondela v Casa Piā¦ | 1-2 |
Rio Ave FC
2.0%
| Mar 01 | Rio Aveā¦ v Famalicā¦ | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Rio Aveā¦ v FC Porto | 1-0 |
| Feb 16 | Rio Aveā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Rio Aveā¦ v SC Braga | 3-0 |
| Jan 31 | Rio Aveā¦ v Arouca | 0-3 |
| Jan 25 | Rio Aveā¦ v Nacional | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Rio Aveā¦ v Benfica | 0-2 |
| Jan 04 | Rio Aveā¦ v Casa Piā¦ | 3-1 |
| Dec 28 | Rio Aveā¦ v Sportinā¦ | 4-0 |
| Dec 20 | Rio Aveā¦ v GIL Vicā¦ | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Oct 05, 2025 | Rio Ave FC | 3-0 | Tondela |
Key Factors
Rio Ave FC struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.