Super League · Mar 07, 2026 13:00
Nairobi City Stars
PWR 35
Mathare United
PWR 44
Nairobi City Stars
PWR 35
1-2
predicted
Mathare United
PWR 44
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Mathare United Win
Score
1-2
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (23%)2-0 (22%)3-0 (14%)0-0 (12%)1-1 (5%)2-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
66%
BTTS
No
No 17%
Over 3.5
17%
Team Comparison
0Attack42
100Defense54
Goals/G
0.01.2
Conc/G
0.01.3
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Nairobi City S…
DWLDD
STABLE
Mathare United
LWLLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_POINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)WR diff only 4% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 36% at home = very high riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesCombined DR 61% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.7%) - VETO 1X2 | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Expected Goals (xG)
1.91
Nairobi City S…vs
0.22
Mathare UnitedGoal Probability
Nairobi Cit…
0
15%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Mathare Uni…
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (18%)2-0 (14%)0-0 (12%)1-1 (11%)2-1 (9%)3-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 89% | 12% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% | - |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% | - |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#17
Nairobi Cit…-9
Gap#8
Mathare Uni…
WR 29% 32 pts
WR 33% 62 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi City … | 24 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 23 | 19 | 32 |
| Mathare United | 48 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 58 | 63 | 62 |
Nairobi City S…
10.0%
| Mar 01 | Nairobi… v Nzoia S… | 0-0 |
| Feb 21 | Nairobi… v Fortune… | 3-2 |
| Feb 15 | Nairobi… v Migori … | 1-0 |
| Jan 31 | Nairobi… v Naivas | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Nairobi… v 3K | 1-1 |
| Jan 18 | Nairobi… v Kisumu … | 1-1 |
| Jan 10 | Nairobi… v Gucha S… | 2-2 |
| Dec 21 | Nairobi… v Soy Uni… | 1-1 |
| Dec 17 | Nairobi… v Vihiga … | 0-3 |
| Dec 12 | Nairobi… v Equity … | 2-0 |
Mathare United
6.0%
| Feb 28 | Mathare… v Gor Mah… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Mathare… v Gucha S… | 3-1 |
| Feb 25 | Mathare… v Shabana | 0-1 |
| Feb 22 | Mathare… v Kabati … | 2-0 |
| Feb 21 | Mathare… v Karioba… | 1-1 |
| Feb 15 | Mathare… v Darajan… | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Mathare… v Tusker | 3-1 |
| Feb 01 | Mathare… v Kisumu … | 0-0 |
| Jan 31 | Mathare… v KCB | 1-2 |
| Jan 25 | Mathare… v Soy Uni… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Nov 22, 2025 | Mathare United | 0-2 | Nairobi City … |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Nairobi City … | 0-0 | Mathare United |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Mathare United | 0-1 | Nairobi City … |
| Mar 29, 2023 | Nairobi City … | 3-0 | Mathare United |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Mathare United | 0-1 | Nairobi City … |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Nairobi City … | 3-0 | Mathare United |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Mathare United | 0-2 | Nairobi City … |
| Aug 07, 2021 | Mathare United | 2-0 | Nairobi City … |
| Mar 02, 2021 | Nairobi City … | 2-0 | Mathare United |
| Dec 23, 2020 | Nairobi City … | 1-1 | Mathare United |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
89%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Mathare United struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.