Queensland NPL · Feb 28, 2026 08:00
Brisbane Roar
PWR 0
Brisbane Roar
PWR 0
1 - 0
FT
Moreton City Excelsior
PWR 35
PWR 35
33% H
27% D
40% A
Final Verdict
Moreton City Excelsior Win
Prediction
N/A
Score
42%
Confidence
STANDARD
Stability STANDARD
Stability STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-2 (9%)
1-3 (7%)
1-1 (7%)
0-2 (7%)
2-2 (6%)
0-3 (5%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 1-0
Stability Protocol
STANDARD · 2 rules · 42%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy56%
AWAY_FORM_MOMENTUMAWAY_FORM_DOMINANT
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line for draw protection
AH_025
Limited data available (Tier 3)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.2%) - VETO 1X2 | Tier 3 data without strong odds (need 85%+) | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense0
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Brisbane Roar Form
WLDDL
STABLE
Moreton City E… Form
WWWDD
UP
Score & Markets
Over 2.569%
BTTS68%
Under 2.531%
Brisbane Ro… Goals
0
26%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
Moreton Cit… Goals
0
8%
1
21%
2
26%
3
21%
4
13%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% | - |
| 4.5 | 34% | 66% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total3.9
Over 3.554%
BTTS Yes72%
Home Clean Sheet11%
Away Clean Sheet20%
Top Correct Scores:
1-2 (9%)
1-1 (8%)
2-2 (7%)
1-3 (6%)
2-1 (6%)
0-2 (5%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Brisbane Roarvs
2.48
Moreton City E…Decision Breakdown
Player40%
Momentum35%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (42%) - confidence penalized
Brisbane Roar
8.0%
| Feb 22 | Brisban… v Brisban… | 1-3 |
| Feb 21 | Brisban… v Sydney | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Brisban… v North S… | 1-1 |
| Feb 14 | Brisban… v Melbour… | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Brisban… v Central… | 1-2 |
| Jan 31 | Brisban… v Newcast… | 4-1 |
| Jan 24 | Brisban… v Adelaid… | 2-3 |
| Jan 16 | Brisban… v Perth G… | 1-2 |
| Jan 09 | Brisban… v Auckland | 0-2 |
| Jan 06 | Brisban… v Melbour… | 1-0 |
Moreton City E…
16.0%
| Feb 20 | Moreton… v Gold Co… | 4-1 |
| Nov 29 | Moreton… v Marconi… | 1-0 |
| Nov 22 | Moreton… v Avondale | 1-3 |
| Nov 14 | Moreton… v Melbour… | 3-3 |
| Nov 08 | Moreton… v Sydney … | 3-3 |
| Nov 02 | Moreton… v Broadme… | 5-1 |
| Oct 26 | Moreton… v Sydney … | 1-2 |
| Oct 19 | Moreton… v Melbour… | 2-0 |
| Oct 12 | Moreton… v Broadme… | 2-3 |
| Sep 06 | Moreton… v Eastern… | 4-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Jun 01, 2025 | Moreton City … | 4-3 | Brisbane Roar |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Brisbane Roar | 1-3 | Moreton City … |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Brisbane Roar | 0-1 | Moreton City … |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Moreton City … | 3-1 | Brisbane Roar |
Key Factors
Moreton City Excelsior in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.