Paraibano · Mar 01, 2026 21:00
Botafogo
PWR 43
Serra Branca
PWR 35
PWR 35
1 - 0
FT
Botafogo
PWR 43
33% H
27% D
40% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (20%)
0-0 (15%)
2-0 (14%)
1-1 (11%)
0-1 (8%)
2-1 (7%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 1-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 45%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 4/7 draws (57%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.0
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack37
Defense65
Goals/G1.1
Conc/G1.0
Serra Branca Form
DLLDW
STABLE
Botafogo Form
DWWDW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.529%
BTTS31%
Under 2.571%
Serra Branca Goals
0
26%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
Botafogo Goals
0
58%
1
32%
2
9%
3
2%
4
0%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 73% | 27% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 2.5 | 15% | 86% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total1.3
Over 3.54%
BTTS Yes23%
Home Clean Sheet57%
Away Clean Sheet47%
Top Correct Scores:
0-0 (27%)
1-0 (20%)
0-1 (15%)
1-1 (11%)
2-0 (8%)
0-2 (4%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Serra Brancavs
0.54
BotafogoDecision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum78%
Standings50%
Market39%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#5
Serra Branca-1
Gap#4
Botafogo
WR 41% 24 pts
WR 25% 25 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serra Branca | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| Botafogo | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 25 |
Serra Branca
8.0%
| Feb 22 | Serra B… v Botafogo | 1-1 |
| Feb 18 | Serra B… v Porto BA | 2-1 |
| Feb 14 | Serra B… v Flumine… | 1-0 |
| Feb 09 | Serra B… v Naciona… | 2-2 |
| Feb 04 | Serra B… v Confian… | 2-0 |
| Feb 01 | Serra B… v Pombal … | 3-1 |
| Jan 29 | Serra B… v Atlétic… | 1-0 |
| Jan 24 | Serra B… v EC de P… | 0-2 |
| Jan 22 | Serra B… v Sousa | 2-1 |
| Jan 18 | Serra B… v Treze | 0-2 |
Botafogo
16.0%
| Feb 28 | Botafogo v Boavista | 0-0 |
| Feb 26 | Botafogo v Naciona… | 2-0 |
| Feb 22 | Botafogo v Boavista | 0-2 |
| Feb 22 | Botafogo v Serra B… | 1-1 |
| Feb 19 | Botafogo v Treze | 2-0 |
| Feb 19 | Botafogo v Naciona… | 1-0 |
| Feb 15 | Botafogo v Flamengo | 1-2 |
| Feb 12 | Botafogo v Flumine… | 1-0 |
| Feb 11 | Botafogo v Atlétic… | 0-2 |
| Feb 08 | Botafogo v Vasco D… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Feb 22, 2026 | Botafogo | 1-1 | Serra Branca |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Botafogo | 1-1 | Serra Branca |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Botafogo | 1-0 | Serra Branca |
| Apr 02, 2024 | Serra Branca | 1-2 | Botafogo |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Botafogo | 0-0 | Serra Branca |
| Mar 02, 2024 | Serra Branca | 0-1 | Botafogo |
| Feb 02, 2023 | Serra Branca | 1-1 | Botafogo |
Key Factors
Botafogo in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.