Primera División - Clausura · Nov 30, 2025 19:30
Club Nacional
PWR 62
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 62
Club Nacional
PWR 62
1 - 0
FT
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 62
45% H
25% D
30% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Club Nacional to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
2-1
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (13%)
3-0 (13%)
1-0 (9%)
2-1 (7%)
3-1 (7%)
1-1 (5%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 1-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 45%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 4/10 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH riskHome team drew 4/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Power & Form
Attack60
Defense71
Goals/G1.7
Conc/G0.8
Attack55
Defense71
Goals/G1.6
Conc/G0.8
Club Nacional Form
DDDDW
STABLE
Peñarol Montev… Form
DLWLW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.560%
BTTS41%
Under 2.540%
Club Nacion… Goals
0
5%
1
16%
2
23%
3
22%
4
16%
Peñarol Mon… Goals
0
57%
1
32%
2
9%
3
2%
4
0%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 63% | 37% | - |
| 1.5 | 26% | 74% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total1.0
Over 3.52%
BTTS Yes15%
Home Clean Sheet62%
Away Clean Sheet60%
Top Correct Scores:
0-0 (37%)
1-0 (19%)
0-1 (18%)
1-1 (9%)
2-0 (5%)
0-2 (4%)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.92
Club Nacionalvs
0.56
Peñarol Montev…Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum94%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#2
Club Nacion…-1
Gap#1
Peñarol Mon…
WR 54% 71 pts
WR 60% 122 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 37 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 63 | 31 | 71 |
| Peñarol Montevi… | 60 | 36 | 14 | 10 | 95 | 49 | 122 |
Club Nacional
12.0%
| Nov 23 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 2-2 |
| Nov 09 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Club Na… v Rangers… | 0-0 |
| Oct 18 | Club Na… v Miramar | 3-1 |
| Oct 12 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Club Na… v Juventus | 0-0 |
| Sep 20 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
| Sep 14 | Club Na… v Plaza C… | 1-2 |
Peñarol Montev…
10.0%
| Nov 23 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 2-2 |
| Nov 16 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 1-2 |
| Nov 09 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-2 |
| Nov 07 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Nov 02 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 2-1 |
| Nov 01 | Peñarol… v Juventus | 0-1 |
| Oct 26 | Peñarol… v Progreso | 3-1 |
| Oct 25 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Oct 20 | Peñarol… v Plaza C… | 0-1 |
| Oct 19 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 3-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Nov 23, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-2 | Club Nacional |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Club Nacional | 3-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 09, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 3-0 | Club Nacional |
| Jul 06, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-0 | Club Nacional |
| Feb 09, 2025 | Club Nacional | 1-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
| Oct 06, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 04, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Club Nacional |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 06, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.