Primera División - Clausura · Nov 23, 2025 19:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 62
Club Nacional
PWR 62
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 62
2 - 2
FT
Club Nacional
PWR 62
43% H
25% D
32% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
2-1
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
0-0 (35%)
1-0 (23%)
0-1 (13%)
1-1 (9%)
2-0 (8%)
2-1 (3%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
WRONG - Actual: 2-2
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 45%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 3/9 draws (33%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 4/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Power & Form
Attack55
Defense71
Goals/G1.6
Conc/G0.8
Attack60
Defense71
Goals/G1.7
Conc/G0.8
Peñarol Montev… Form
LWLWL
STABLE
Club Nacional Form
DDDWD
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.59%
BTTS15%
Under 2.591%
Peñarol Mon… Goals
0
52%
1
34%
2
11%
3
3%
4
0%
Club Nacion… Goals
0
68%
1
26%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 64% | 36% | - |
| 1.5 | 27% | 73% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total1.0
Over 3.52%
BTTS Yes15%
Home Clean Sheet68%
Away Clean Sheet53%
Top Correct Scores:
0-0 (36%)
1-0 (23%)
0-1 (14%)
1-1 (9%)
2-0 (7%)
2-1 (3%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.38
Club NacionalDecision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player40%
Momentum53%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#1
Peñarol Mon…+1
Gap#2
Club Nacion…
WR 60% 122 pts
WR 54% 71 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol Montevi… | 60 | 36 | 14 | 10 | 95 | 49 | 122 |
| Club Nacional | 37 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 63 | 31 | 71 |
Peñarol Montev…
8.0%
| Nov 16 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 1-2 |
| Nov 09 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-2 |
| Nov 07 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Nov 02 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 2-1 |
| Nov 01 | Peñarol… v Juventus | 0-1 |
| Oct 26 | Peñarol… v Progreso | 3-1 |
| Oct 25 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Oct 20 | Peñarol… v Plaza C… | 0-1 |
| Oct 19 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 3-0 |
| Oct 16 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 0-2 |
Club Nacional
12.0%
| Nov 09 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Club Na… v Rangers… | 0-0 |
| Oct 18 | Club Na… v Miramar | 3-1 |
| Oct 12 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Club Na… v Juventus | 0-0 |
| Sep 20 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
| Sep 14 | Club Na… v Plaza C… | 1-2 |
| Sep 07 | Club Na… v Racing … | 3-0 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Sep 20, 2025 | Club Nacional | 3-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 09, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 3-0 | Club Nacional |
| Jul 06, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-0 | Club Nacional |
| Feb 09, 2025 | Club Nacional | 1-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
| Oct 06, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 04, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Club Nacional |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 06, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
Key Factors
Peñarol Montevideo struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.