KNVB Beker · Mar 04, 2026 19:00
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 68
Telstar
PWR 72
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 68
4-3
predicted
Telstar
PWR 72
47% H
25% D
28% A
Final Verdict
AZ Alkmaar Win
Prediction
4-3
Score
42%
Confidence
SKIP
Stability SKIP
Stability SKIP
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (11%)
2-1 (10%)
1-0 (9%)
3-0 (8%)
1-1 (8%)
3-1 (8%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 1 rules · 42%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
POINTS_GAP
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line for draw protection
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)Away team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (27.2%) - VETO 1X2
Power & Form
Attack85
Defense55
Goals/G2.4
Conc/G1.3
Attack85
Defense60
Goals/G2.4
Conc/G1.1
AZ Alkmaar Form
LWWLW
STABLE
Telstar Form
WLDDW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.560%
BTTS54%
Under 2.540%
AZ Alkmaar Goals
0
10%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
Telstar Goals
0
40%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
Over/Under Markets
| Line | Over % | Under % | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% | - |
| 4.5 | 26% | 74% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
Goal Markets
xG Total3.4
Over 3.545%
BTTS Yes63%
Home Clean Sheet29%
Away Clean Sheet11%
Top Correct Scores:
2-1 (10%)
1-1 (9%)
2-0 (8%)
1-0 (7%)
3-1 (7%)
2-2 (6%)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.35
AZ Alkmaarvs
0.91
TelstarDecision Breakdown
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum86%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#2
AZ Alkmaar+6
Gap#8
Telstar
WR 64% 30 pts
WR 71% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 18 | 30 |
| Telstar | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 15 |
AZ Alkmaar
12.0%
| Mar 01 | AZ Alkm… v Utrecht | 2-0 |
| Feb 26 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 4-0 |
| Feb 22 | AZ Alkm… v Sparta … | 3-1 |
| Feb 19 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | AZ Alkm… v Ajax | 1-1 |
| Feb 03 | AZ Alkm… v FC Twen… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | AZ Alkm… v NEC Nij… | 1-3 |
| Jan 25 | AZ Alkm… v Telstar | 0-1 |
| Jan 21 | AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… | 1-1 |
Telstar
12.0%
| Feb 27 | Telstar v NAC Bre… | 3-0 |
| Feb 22 | Telstar v Feyenoo… | 2-1 |
| Feb 15 | Telstar v FC Twen… | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Telstar v GO Ahea… | 1-1 |
| Feb 05 | Telstar v GO Ahea… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Telstar v PEC Zwo… | 4-1 |
| Jan 25 | Telstar v AZ Alkm… | 0-1 |
| Jan 17 | Telstar v Excelsi… | 2-2 |
| Jan 14 | Telstar v Almere … | 1-3 |
| Jan 11 | Telstar v Ajax | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Jan 25, 2026 | Telstar | 0-1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Oct 05, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Telstar |
Key Factors
AZ Alkmaar in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.